Saturday, August 17, 2019

Economic Election Predictions

I'm going to go out on a limb and make some predictions about the next election. Trump will do his best to manipulate his treatment of China, Mexico & Canada, and Europe and Japan (all out big trading partners) to provide economic relief leading up to the 2020 election. He will keep things suppressed using various tariffs, agreements, etc. as he's doing now. And then in measured intervals as the presidential election begins his crescendo, he will suddenly disclose some detail that makes him remove some tariffs here and there, to finalize an agreement, a precision tweet about how the Fed is coming around and praise their latest public statements or action, tweak the latest adjustments to taxes (based on the economic demography of some targeted electoral district)... I'm sure you can imagine 10 clever machinations he could implement in time for the next election. And the markets will respond as you'd expect. And his supporters will extol his genius. But just like North Korea -- when you create a false crisis and then "fix it" -- you can't legitimately take credit for being awesome. But legitimate is not something Trump has ever really been concerned with. I mean, really. Who's to say what legitimate even means? Right?