Saturday, April 24, 2021

Democratic plot?

The Democrats sneakiest plot yet? Are Democrats putting out false information in Right-wing  information outlets making Republicans vaccine skeptics so they don't get the vaccine, and as a result of more of them dying, it will be harder for them to elect Republicans? 

Not funny? Neither is people equating the risk of vaccines with the risks of COVID. Also not funny: the extra deaths from people not getting vaccinated.

In America today-ish:

32 million cases    570,000 deaths.  That's about 1/56 of people who get it die. If our testing is way off (more people actually got it then were tested positive), let's say 1/200.  That's in just over a year. It might go up over time for "lifetime odds".  Or, if you just take the whole population of the US, about 1/580 of us have died from COVID so far. And the portion varies widely by geography and demography in this country. Some communities are hit WAY harder.

211 million doses of vaccines.  7 deaths (maybe) from the J&J vaccine. That's about 1/40,000,000.  That could go up over your lifetime. let's say it goes up by a factor of 10 (exceedingly unlikely). Conservatively, 1/4,000,000

Let's compare with some other lifetime chances of dying....

Heart disease1 in 6
Cancer1 in 7
All preventable causes of death1 in 24
Chronic lower respiratory disease1 in 27
Suicide1 in 88
Opioid overdose1 in 92
Fall1 in 106
Motor-vehicle crash1 in 107
Gun assault1 in 289
Pedestrian incident1 in 543

But those are just death statistics. We know there are a lot of people who have serious complications and long term debilities with COVID. And we don't know what the longer long-term effects will be, how it will impact long term health and mortality yet.

And, although we also don't know the longer term effects of the vaccine yet, given what we DO know, they are likely to be vanishingly trivial compared to the COVID long-term effects.

Any way you slice it, mathematically, medically, mortally, autopsically (I just made up that word to be morbidly funny -- get it? "slice it." haha), compassionately (for the protection of your fellow humans)... health-wise, the wise health decision is vaccination. Politically, on the other hand, "I'll get the vaccine when they pry the gun from my cold, dead hands.

By the way, the newer strains could be more contagious and more lethal, and not vaccinating will allow them more opportunities to both spread and mutate further, making it all even worse. Please reconsider if you're vaccination shy for whatever reason.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html

https://injuryfacts.nsc.org/all-injuries/preventable-death-overview/odds-of-dying/

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6



Monday, April 19, 2021

The Obvious Reason the Capitalism Needs a Major Adjustment

 There are certain important benefits to free capitalist societies. There are clear existential threats to capitalist societies. How do we keep the capitalism benefits without allowing it to drive itself into certain destruction?

The benefits: innovation, entrepreneurial spirit, freedom to enter. Liabilities: income inequality & poverty (including homelessness, universal access to healthcare, and hunger), environmental destruction, monopolistic effects, worker exploitation.

Are there mechanisms to keep those things under wraps? Yes. Are they used to an appropriate level? No. Why? Greedy plutocracy. How do you solve it? Smart leaders of business recognizing the long-term trends and realizing that if they don't own their responsibilities along with their rights, they will ultimately lose it all, along with the rest of us. Or, enough of the voters understanding the same things and voting in leaders with the political will to enact limitations that can lead to increasing income equality.


Wednesday, April 7, 2021

Partisanship

 You attribute 30 people coming forward testifying against Trump (knowing the damage it will do to their lives) to a contrived, partisan attack, and you believe any whispered innuendo against someone from the other party. It says a lot about you.