Economic Election Predictions

I'm going to go out on a limb and make some predictions about the next election. Trump will do his best to manipulate his treatment of China, Mexico & Canada, and Europe and Japan (all out big trading partners) to provide economic relief leading up to the 2020 election. He will keep things suppressed using various tariffs, agreements, etc. as he's doing now. And then in measured intervals as the presidential election begins his crescendo, he will suddenly disclose some detail that makes him remove some tariffs here and there, to finalize an agreement, a precision tweet about how the Fed is coming around and praise their latest public statements or action, tweak the latest adjustments to taxes (based on the economic demography of some targeted electoral district)... I'm sure you can imagine 10 clever machinations he could implement in time for the next election. And the markets will respond as you'd expect. And his supporters will extol his genius. But just like North Korea -- when you create a false crisis and then "fix it" -- you can't legitimately take credit for being awesome. But legitimate is not something Trump has ever really been concerned with. I mean, really. Who's to say what legitimate even means? Right?

Service

tl;dr

I didn't join out of altruism. I didn't sign up to feel patriotic or fulfill my sense of obligation or duty to my country. I did it so I would have something to write about, writing being my aspiration at the time. What better to experience than being an astronaut. Had I stayed the course (and succeeded), I'd be one now, training for an ISS mission or some future mission to Mars and, with a little more luck, be a veteran of space.

Around the end of flight school, it was clear that the complete dedication and self discipline I would need to have a chance at astronaut wasn't a part of my repertoire. I was too hooked on books, crossword puzzles, and other of life's shiny baubles. Being in the Navy was fun and satisfying, though. I liked being part of the machine, being at the tip of the sword, and I loved flying. and seeing the world on my bike when we'd hit some exotic port. But I also loved my family, and had I wanted to stay in another 10 years to retire, I would have had to miss even more of my kids' life,. Oh, and keeping the marriage together was hard enough without the 6-month separations. If I'd tried to stay competitive in as a Navy pilot, I would have had to continue to take more arduous assignments away from home, and with the Clinton military roll-backs, a generous early-out bonus helped make the decision. Plus, by that time, I'd already decided what I wanted to work on for the next phase of life. 

It was Reagan's Secretary of Education who wrote convincingly that education mattered, and I agreed. And with all the alarmist rhetoric about the critical state of education in America, I thought I could bring my organizational management and leadership skills to contribute.  I let the Navy help pay for my masters in Ed. Admin and jumped ship to civilian life. The original plan was to spend 5 years in the corporate world, learn what they knew about educating people, build up a little cash, and then become an educator. It started out great working with CSC (now merged with HP's Enterprise division to become DXC Technology) for a couple years until 9/11 caused a couple rounds of layoffs in which my division was eventually cut. I could have stayed in the industry but due to a nice series of unlikely events, I used that opportunity to take the plunge into education.

I didn't meet Todd until the 3rd grade when we moved across town and across the alley from the Gaudreaus. One thing that didn't change throughout his life was how he welcomed new people. For the next 5 years, we were best friends. I don't know how many days we spent out at their cabin, or sleeping over in his basement, or sneaking peeks of his big brothers' Playboys under the mattress, or roaming downtown at Ben Franklin, trudging through the snow to the Old Armory to play basketball in the biting cold Saturday mornings and the other way to the outdoor pool at Harmon every day in the summer...but there's no doubt that my own formative years were influenced by his genteel nature. I could never figure out his proclivity for muscle mags...maybe because he was (very past tense) a little wimpy back then, but I'm sure it wasn't long after high school that he put that behind him for good.  I would go with him selling his Grit newspaper/magazine for a 35 cents around the neighborhood and he'd come with me on my paper route (I delivered to his house), and I have no idea what we used that money for -- was it all on candy? We'd head over to help Larrty out at the carwash, and spent hours sitting 65 feet up the pine tree next door where we could survey the whole Basin, two short twerps safe from the big, bad world. Later when we climbed the huge light towers down by the tracks, his doleful tears saved us from getting in trouble from the station workers when the ordered us down, and from the security guard when we were rooting around the Gibson's construction site before it was Pamida before it was some recreation/rehab center(?) and from two big-kid asshole bullies who cornered us down by the Heddrich's building. I remember some rare times when he'd try to be angry at someone or something. It was like he couldn't do it! He'd put on a face that was clearly an imitation of what he thought an angry person should look like. He couldn't mask his natural goodness.

Even though we had (mostly) different interests in high school, we still hung out sometimes and when I'd come home from college, he was usually the first person I'd track down and we'd catch up. When the Navy took me out here to California, we didn't communicate much except when I was back in Williston for the holidays, and I didn't see him after my folks moved out to GF.  When facebook became a thing, we'd send our greetings and he'd keep me updated about our friends who died, and I'd send him updates about my mundane life out here. I loved seeing his ridiculous (but interesting) oilfield videos. Seeing his omnipresent goofy smile and perpetual great attitude would put an equally goofy smile on my own face.  David (Everson) -- that's what we called him back then -- lived down the street and we played with him in grade school sometimes, and when he died I felt it. But I'm sure Todd and I went months at a time seeing each other every day, and with the exception of good Navy friend of mine, I've been fortunate enough to not have lost a real best friend. Until now. I reached out when I was in GF in August (I thought he'd be heading through on his way home from his treatment in MN) but it didn't work out.  Ouch. I'm glad that I at least let him know recently how much I've valued our friendship.

Say what you want about facebook, but it keeps me close to the far away people, and brings to mind the  precious times we've been together. Having a childhood friend like Todd was a gift. I envy those of you who were able to get close as an adult. Reading these posts, I know he gave a lot of happiness and comfort to a lot of people by just being his wonderful kind self. Is there better legacy than that? Todd, you've lived a great life and I'm filled with gratitude having known you.

Kavanaugh Not Right for the Court

1. Non Judicial: His partisan rant was enough. Someone who talks like that, thinks like that (revenge, avenge, blame, seeing only half the story), not judge material, definitely not Supreme Court Material.

2. Mean drunk: Never blacked out? Right. Doesn't entertain the possibility of blacking out.  Nope. Full of shit. Not the sort of brain we need on the Supreme Court.

3. Compromised: I believe he did it, and therefore would is psychically beholden to that subconscious experience.

That's way more than enough for me to believe they need to find someone else.

I'm wholly galled by the outrage the Republicans are expressing for the Democrats, who are using this accusation as a political tool. I am outraged at the Democrats, too.  But after what the Republicans pulled on Merritt's nomination, for THEM to be outraged when they did something way worse, fuck that shit. Based on who you are, GOP, the correct response is "Touche."


I kind of think that the humans who are charged with making the wisest decisions for the complex world of national government should be able to see past their own small lives. They should be anchored outside a narrow, parochial partisan viewpoint. They should be confident in the arc of their lives and understand how politics will wreak havoc, not act with the outrage expected from an ingenue to the world of public life. To feign indignation or to actually be indignant to a reaction the reality of your history is an accurate portrayal of your character. Either you're too naive to hold the position, or you're deceptive, in which case you don't deserve the position. "Hey, he's human. He should be able to get mad..." Shut up. You're being entrusted with the most important job in the country. You need to be more than just another human. You need to be an exceptionally wise human with an exceptionally broad and deep understanding of the human condition since that's what you'll be judging. You can't be tossed around by the ridiculous political whims of a dysfunctional congress, for God's sake. You're supposed to be the check and balance! Not the motherfucking arena punchers. If you want to do and be that, then run for congress. Don't accept the nomination for Supreme Court. You could have held steadfast in your convictions without lowering yourself to the ridiculous stance of shrill conspiracy theorist. Seriously, dude. Have a modicum of perspective.

I don't care if he was hurt, angry, scared. A SCJ should be able to control their ire enough to refrain from a partisan rant. This was the best we had? I don't think so. And, no, I'm not a democrat or liberal. Low point, hollow "win". Up your game, GOP - this is an embarrassment. Yes, Dems share the blame. But integrity still matters to some of us. Not to Kavanaugh in so many ways. Our fathers told us taking the easy way out was not the best course of action. And here is a prime example of doing just that. Take the extra time to find a full-on winner. Not a frat-boy patsy. Like Trump, it's not the democrats that bring him down. It's his own damn stupidity -- Kavanaugh less stupid, but similarly an "emotional intelligence moron".

Atonement

When a culture has lived in a state of sin and has caused huge damage, there is no easy way out. It will never be forgotten and it will continue to undermine societal health until it is fully and overtly atone for. Two obvious examples are slavery and misogyny. For our hundreds of years of enslaving a people and for our history back to the stone age of mistreating women (through rape, murder, oppression, discrimination), it will eat us until we come clean and pay for it in a way that actually heals. There is no "getting over it." Some things you don't get over. I can imagine being raped is one of them. Being denigrated as a slave. Losing a child in a tragic, needless accident or through violent and torturous crime. None of these are "get over it-able." It will continue to erode our collective self esteem until we make up for it in as many possible ways that there are to do so. Until then, don't get over it. That's a fallacious admonition and the person who makes it doesn't understand how life works.

Making Capitalism Viable Long Term

One of the proven outcomes of capitalism is its tendency to increasingly polarize the powerful and weak. Over the long term, the effect destabilizes an economy, weakening it overall, or worse, leads to a breakdown of society.

The reasons are undisputed: the rich and powerful (by definition) wield influence (economic, media, governmental and political). That influence improves their standing at the expense of labor.

For long term strength and growth, policies that ensure labor shares in the economic growth (powering markets by strengthening the buying power of the middle and lower classes) and decrease income inequality will increase the health of the society.

With the historic record of companies driving down salaries for the lowest workers, what can be done to:

• incentivize companies to increase compensation for lower-wage workers, 
• keep employment high and employees striving to achieve,
• reduce those on public welfare, 
• maintain a viable safety net, and
• sustain the innovative an entrepreneurial spirit where capitalism excels?

Obviously, any policies that continue to oppress any group of people, making them less able to participate in the fruits of American prosperity are toxic to universal pursuit of happiness, so anything that doesn't work to root out and destroy institutional racism, sexism, and other isms weakens our country.  Any policy that increases income inequality weakens us.  

Fragility

There's a certain genetic component in personality that contributes to a thick or thin skin, but how does a person become fragile or resilient (gritty), and what is a good strategy for parents and schools to foster empathy and the ability to understand another's situation while strengthening their own ability to transcend hardships?

I bet one is to call out or even create activities that naturally result in teachable moments to stop and reflect on different ways to approach the current struggle.

There is a component of being able to step outside one's self and see the perspective of live as it's lived from outside the present moment. That takes practice and someone to help get started.